Covid cases are declining in the US Is the delta wave over?

The delta variant of Covid-19 appears to be easing its long-established strangulation in the United States. Since September 1, The number of daily new cases decreased by 50 percent. Hospitalization and deaths lag behind new infections, also decreasing.

Continued spikes in cases in countries like the UK and in heavily vaccinated states like Vermont provide important reminders that Covid remains effective.

While there are some exceptions to the general decline of the national covid virus in hot spots Like Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, Wyoming, Idaho, West Virginia, some of them Expert opinion That – based on increasing numbers of immunity from vaccines and natural infections – this was probably the last major pandemic wave in the country. Quite simply, a super-transportable delta variant, which is Responsible for more than 99 percent From the burden of issues in the country, which is Prevalent breed almost everywhere In the world, immune systems are still not trained to combat it.

But what appears to be the end of the pandemic may just be a respite. The delta’s rise over the summer that once promised freedom from Covid shows the virus’s never-ending vicissitudes and occurrence. As deltas recede in certain areas, they appear in others. And with only 50 percent of Vaccination of the world’s population, the possibility of threatening new variables is always present.

There is an inherent unpredictability of the pandemic that calls for humility. Although it appears that the peak of the initial delta wave has been reached, and the increased vaccinations and immunity will certainly contain the size and shape of future rises, it does not cancel out the possibility of more variable delta waves or other strain falling. He. She. The steady increase in cases in countries like the UK and in heavily vaccinated states like Vermont provide important reminders that Covid remains effective.

America’s collective immunity to the coronavirus is increasing day by day. Nearly 80 percent of adults have Received at least one shot, and recent mandates requiring vaccination for employment or requiring proof of vaccination for activities such as indoor dining will continue to add to this number. Vaccines for children ages 5 to 11 are expected to be approved soon. And At least a third of Americans You have a degree of natural immunity from previous infection with the virus.

But for a country the highly virulent delta variant is still circulating in the middle of more than 70 million people are eligible to get the vaccine but are still not immunizedThis immunity is not enough.

“There are still a lot of people exposed to this virus, and you can’t play the game around the clock. It will find you,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. When it comes to pandemic waves, “the reason Its appearance is not clear or the reason for its termination. What we can say is that vaccination rates play a role in peak volume.”

The UK Delta route is useful and realistic. Although there is a population 68 percent are fully vaccinated (compared to the US at 58 percent) and are already experiencing a delta wave that peaked in mid-July, and the number of COVID-19 cases is back to the same levels as three months ago.

UK now Schedule more daily injuries From many Western European countries – France, Germany, Italy and Spain combined – they are once again preparing for a difficult Covid winter. It is now clear that the wave that peaked in July is being followed by a new delta wave, although there are cases of a delta variant, It’s called Delta Plus, which is also under investigation.

Likewise, the worst of the epidemic is over in Iran after him experienced a huge second wave from the coronavirus in June 2020. However, the coronavirus kept coming back. Then they got a third raise. Then a fourth boom occurred. “The fifth increase they had this summer was the worst ever,” Osterholm added. “Time is showing us that our immunity is waning.”

Meanwhile, Vermont has the highest vaccination rate in the country, with 70 percent of the population fully vaccinated. But cases and hospitalization Currently climbing. Unvaccinated pockets of the state It is clear that the blame lies in part, but there are no clear answers. More than anything, Vermont shows how difficult it is Escape from Delta’s narrow grip.

On the other hand, any variant that competes to overthrow the delta is likely to maintain its maximum transmissibility and also acquire the ability to evade the immune system, which is difficult to achieve simultaneously.

“Your virus should be able to bind to its receptor, but if you mutate the virus so that it doesn’t bind also to get around the equation [antibody] response, and then reduce its ability to infect the host,” he explained Mark Slivka, an immunologist at Oregon Health & Science University.

This is why delta is unlikely to be pushed out of its position by another variable any time soon. His unrivaled ability to spread has struck all the competing Greek letter strains in the ring, Recently Mu.

“Out of all the mutations, this was the most transmissible,” said Dr. Monica Gandhi, Professor of Medicine at the University of California, San Francisco. But then, in an encouraging development, “The coronavirus spreads, and you have antibody responses in someone, including the nose, which protects them and makes them less likely to transmit.”

In fact, vaccines are still effective against Delta. they are Reducing morbidity and mortality of the virus, as seen in the UK despite a spike in cases. As vaccination numbers swell from mandates, new age groups are being approved for mass and oral antiviral pills, such as Molnopiravir, to treat patients early in the COVID cycle And to prevent hospitalization, severe illness and death will be further suppressed.

But there is still a lot of uncertainty about when the next mutation will appear here, even if it is smaller in the overall disease burden, or how it will end. Riding on all this is the heterogeneous nature of America’s cities and societies with differing demographics, health, vaccination rates, mitigation efforts, and risk tolerance.

“The modeling that’s happening now more than four weeks later is pixie dust,” Osterholm said.

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