Beware of starting Rob Gronkowski

Rejoice, hordes of imagination. Rejoice! As for Rob Gronkowski he no longer has an injury rating. He is due to return this week to face the Saints. Thank God!

Ah, but leave it to the pagan madman to pour cold water on the fanaticism of Gronk Church.

That’s right, our impartial approach to fantasy ratings has us hesitant to use your puppy this week, for several reasons.

First, it’s just the topic of running behind Gronk, we don’t like starting players coming off long layoffs due to injury – Gronk hasn’t played since a rib injury in week three.

But it goes beyond that. His Buccaneers are facing a defense of the Saints that has not yet allowed for a tight end to the season, and they haven’t given up more than 62 yards at center in a given week.

But you say your puppy isn’t like tight ends? is different.

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Rob Gronkowski
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We like to use math in our calculations. Includes probabilities and averages. And most players don’t score nearly as often as Gronk’s average-per-received touchdown. Not even the narrow ends.

His targets in the red zone (8) ranked 61st. But his position in the red zone TDs (4) was ranked ninth.

The math doesn’t stop there. Barely started. For intelligence: Narrow extremities tend to have higher TD rates than those in other positions. However, Gronk is a remote country. His four TDs are in only 16 receptions. There is only one narrow end in that vicinity, Colts’ Mo Alie-Cox, with four on only 13 catches. The difference: Gronk collected him in just three matches, and it took seven matches.

In the PPR formats, 24 of Gronk’s 58.4 fictional scores had TDs, or 41.1%. And he did so in just 16 receptions — one for every four catches.

To put that into perspective, all tight ends across the NFL scored a combined 90 points on 1,050 catch points, or one point for every 11.7 catch points. So your groin is roughly three times more likely than expected.

These 90 tight ends make up 540 points of the total PPR’s 2,792.1 points, or 19 percent. So Gronk doubles expectations on this front.

These are not trends that typically persist over an entire season, so some significant decline in efficiency and delays are to be expected. We expect this regression to start on Sunday vs. Saints.


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