It’s an open season for everything Jets: midfielder, offensive coordinator, head coach, general manager. The criticism wasn’t kind and most of it was fair.
Zach Wilson suffered his first knee injury before leading the Gates to the top spot in the first quarter. OC Mike LaFleur looks overrated so far, if not outright lost. Robert Saleh has yet to identify any kind of identity on either side of the ball, aside from the strong performance of the defense in the surprise win over the Titans. And very few Joe Douglas’ excellent buys and veteran acquisitions are healthy and contribute to this success.
All of these things are true, but I’m not ready to ditch this entire regime after six weeks. I wouldn’t say I have “steadfast, unwavering confidence” in this kit, says owner Woody Johnson. But I’m willing to give Wilson, Lafleur and Saleh more chances.
As for Douglas, yes, he just had to give up a late draft option to bring in Joe Flacco when he could get the all-time veteran quarterback here for free. But Douglas earned a ton for Jamal Adams and Sam Darnold, and earned a fourth-rounder from the Vikings for a sixth and tight finish to Chris Herndon, who has one catch for yards this season. You can’t blame him on the knee of Mekhi Becton and Achilles by Carl Lawson.
Anyway, I was looking for any support to take the Jets as double digit underdogs from a 54-13 loss. The only thing I can find is the trend that the underdogs losing 20 extra points are 7-4 ATS this season, including the Jets’ win over the Titans after a 26-0 loss in Denver. I don’t see that happening again here, as Joe Borough and Jamar Chase would be a scoring threat to every possession. Not only will Mike White be able to do this, but he can also help the Bengals with the transitions.
pick: Bengals, -10.5.
Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) over the Tennessee Titans
Line flipped from Colts +1 to -1.5 on Thursday, a sign sharp bettors expect a bit of a pullback for the Titans after their back-to-back win over the Bills and Chiefs. Indianapolis has a quick turnaround in Sunday night’s win over the 49ers in the rain in Santa Clara, California, but it’s a team that is rarely punished and is a plus-9 in turnover to the Titans minus -1.
Los Angeles Rams (-14.5) over Houston Texans
He’d be a bit more worried if Tyrod Taylor was announced back in Texas. But even if he did, he would be rusty and devoid of Mark Ingram, who traded with the Saints. Thinking of the rams would be more on this after the lions’ panic.
Carolina Panthers (+3) over ATLANTA FALCONS
The Panthers have lost four times in a row but now Sam Darnold is basically playing for his career, and I love that dynamic. This game also fits the successful trend of dogs +6 or less.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) vs Cleveland Browns
A scary choice because Brown is now the better team in this match. But we got the hook and Mike Tomlin (40-20-2 ATS as an underdog), and it fits the trend we’ve been following — road dogs +6 or less are 26-11 ATS this season.
Detroit Lions (+3.5) over Philadelphia Eagles
Dan Campbell team 0-7 straight but 4-3 ATS as this guy trains to win. I’m happy to grab the hook here against the Eagles in a back-to-back road spot.
Chicago Bears (+4) over San Francisco 49ers
He didn’t bite into the post-blast trend with the Jets (see above) but here with the Bears, destroyed by the Bucs, 38-3. Jimmy Garoppolo knows Tom Brady, but he is not Tom Brady.
Buffalo Bills (-14) over the Miami Dolphins
They hate the idea of giving two downs in a division game, but from losing goodbye, this definitely seems like a place where the bills could blow someone away. And they have already defeated the Dolphins, 35-0.
New England Patriots (+5) over LA charger
Los Angeles is also on the verge of losing a goodbye, but it’s playing Bill Belichick, not Miami. The Patriots only defeated the Jets and the Texas, but they were supposed to hit the elite pirates and Cowboys. Also, here’s another way “dog +6 or less.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3.5) ON JACKSONVILLE JAGUAR
I love this trend that we’ve been pointing out and riding everywhere else except Seattle. I can think of Jags as +6 but not +3.5. Now the way these teams have to be ranked half a point apart from all three in a very difficult domestic stadium. Expect a touching match from Jamal Adams. Genu Smith has two covers in losses, and his first win wouldn’t be that much nail-biting.
Washington FC (+3) on DENVER BRONCOS
The WFT beat the Packers 430 yards to 304, but red zone problems cost him the cover and a chance of a major upset. Taylor Hynek could drive the smaller turmoil here. WFT is our last team in the +6 or lower road dog direction for this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) over New Orleans Saints
Finding reasons to resist Brady and Box has proven costly. Yes, that’s a lot to give the Saints in the Superdome, but they have a short week after Monday night, and it looks like their attack has been reduced to deliveries and dumps to Alvin Camara.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+2) Above the Dallas Cowboys
Sharp bookies have sent that streak to an uncomfortable number, almost an insult to the Cowboys’ 5-1 overall and 6-0 ATS. The Vikings have a lot to offer along with Dalvin Cook, Adam Tillen and Justin Jefferson. They lost in Arizona due to a field goal miss and kept Brown’s excellent offensive to seven points.
Best bets: Seahawks, Vikings, Giants.
Week lock: Seahawks (locking 4-2 in 2021).
last week: 7-6 in general, 3-0 are the best bets.
Thursday: Packers (W).
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