Target and touch aggregates are important, but not as important as market share. “Goals” are mostly receiver stats (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of undoing.
What we do is really simple. For pass catchers, market share is goals divided by the team’s pass attempts. For running backs, touches are divided by the team’s plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).
Shot counts, target depth, and touch type (backhand receptions are more valuable than RB carriers) are also important but generally won’t be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this an essential tool for evaluating concessions and deals.
Here is the list. Make sure to select the current week but all weeks of the season will be archived so you can have a multi-week sample of a player if you wish. Also note as the season progressed I thought well of doing these stats by week and not for the season. The goal here is to respond quickly to current trends. Annual stats smooth everything out to a no-nonsense middle. Remember, as Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”
Amari Cooper It finished third, and I predict it will continue to put WR1 stock on the market for the rest of the season.
Greg Dolcic It was No. 1 TE yet Courtland Sutton Injury, and Sutton will probably be several weeks away. Do Dulcich (36.4% goals) play more Jerry Goody? yes i will.
Tyler Lockett Passed successfully DK Metcalfe But that was a Jalen Ramsey thing. Expect a return to normalcy this week versus the Panthers.
We don’t do QBs here, but with six teams out and questions for many at QB, I’d like to put that on record for this week, Sam Darnold (Seahawks) is my top pick among the most widely available QBs.
Mac Hollins This week can start versus the Rams given that he won’t be seeing Ramsey. He finished in the top 10 and had a 30% share in week 13, which in itself makes him a viable week 14 starting WR.
Darius Slayton He was No. 17. Am I even thinking about him being ranked in the top 20 WR the rest of the season, and even in Week 14 (Eagles)? yes i will. Play Slayton.
Nico Collins This week against the Cowboys is obviously a bad game, but he can get a late TD and potentially get 10 to 12 goals. Even in this match, this is probably the WR3. I wish you had better options, but again, lots of goodbyes.
Samaji Perin He was No. 28 in goals. man. It was one of the top 5 touches. What’s going on now with Joe Mixon Likely to come back from a concussion? Remember that you are not at all physically vulnerable if you are deemed able to return. It’s not like Mixon will be at the expense of the pitch. I actually think Perrin is better than Mixon because he is better in the passing game and in protection. Honestly, I don’t see any difference as a runner. I think Perine cuts pretty hard to Mixon, but Mixon easily over Perine if they’re both active.
He is uber athletic Chigoziem Okonkwo Not only can you start at the tight end (obviously) but even in the flex if you have a good TE? Looking at generally rubbish WRs on concessions with all these goodbyes, sure! Trillon Burks He will pass out (concussion). I would like to pass a non-graph Nick Westbrook Aiken (95% snaps and only two goals), too, against the terrible Jaguars defense.
Run back touches
Ramonder Stephenson He’s RB1 now, with over 30% in Week 13.
Shocking to see Ezekiel Elliott more than 30%. I figured about 20% given how much it has improved Tony Pollard (21.5%, 25) is. But Elliott is like one of the Joneses, basically.
Chiefs are very worried about running backwards but it looks like it is Isiah Pacheco She’s a bell cow no matter what, and he’s scored a touchdown for the second week in a row—we knew he was bound to find dirty paychecks given his predictable points.
To summarize what I wrote about earlier Cam Akers This week, it won ugly but its market share outperforms everyone else. He’s No. 15, so even if you’re squeezing him for the Rams offense (which was good against the Seahawks and now getting the Raiders), he’s at least No. 20. Which is why we hang out and then jump on the guys. Concessions are when the playoffs come and 75% of your league is no longer competing.
The Rams offensive line sucks, and the box scores aren’t great, but Cam Akers plays a lot better than you realize
Since Week 10 (15 minutes rushing, 51 RBs)
16 in yards after contact per attempt
(weekly: 3.67, 3.07, 4.13, 2.35)
Sixteenth place in the MTF
10th place in PFF’s Elusive ranking
– Derek Brown (DBro_FFB) December 6, 2022
James Cook I got about 45% of the shots. The cook got more than touches Devin Singletary and was more active as a receiver. Singletary owns the line. Singletary is the top 8 in accelerated success rate and is slightly ahead of Cook. I’d rather play Singletary, but it’s pretty close.
D’Andrea Swift Finally arrived, we yelled at. But he’s still the second RB22 on our list and hasn’t even got on the line, so how much can he go up, even on PPR? I will say RB17, tops. It’s not an RB1 remotely.
I’d go so far as to say that for the rest of the season, Zonovan Knight of the Jets (23 in a 13 week stock market) outperformed the Swift. Bam is very quick, runs hard and has to be on the goal line as well as being off zero in the passing game.
Leonard Fournet won’t go away. he f White Rashadwho had a big flop, would be about 20% each.
Ignores Deejay Dallas, who suffers from a sprained ankle. I expect Tony Jones To be the start of the Seahawks vs. Panthers game.
I expect Mike Boone For more actions on account Latavius Murray (who finished third). Why is Murray or anyone so entrenched in this crime? Plus Murray is 32 years old and has no future in Denver. But I was shocked by the market share in Week 13 for Murray, of course. Very stupid bronco.
Gus Edwards It must be completely replaced with Kenyan Drake. If that happens, Drake is a top 30 RB and this week – again with a bye – would make him a starter on several teams.
(Top photo: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)