Daytona 500 odds, picks, preview: Hendrick’s teammates Alex Bowman, Kyle Larson start on the front row

More than three months since Joey Logano won the championship last season and two weeks since Martin Truex Jr. won the Clash at the Coliseum, the Daytona 500 is back to start the 2023 season of the NASCAR Cup Series. The first points race in the schedule is a sport marquee race.

Cup Series rookie Austin Cindrick won last year at Daytona and kicked off an unlikely season that featured 19 different winners in 36 races. NextGen offered competitive racing and a more balanced field. Will we see more of that in 2023?

Alex Bowman took over the pole position of Qualifying on Wednesday. It was a banner day for Hendrick Motorsports, which also started Bowman’s teammate, Kyle Larson, in second. Bowman has never finished in the top ten at the Daytona 500 in six starts. Larson’s best finish at Daytona was seventh.

Wednesday’s qualifiers determined only the top two spots in the starting order, while Thursday’s two legs determined the remaining starting order. Logano won the first Duel race on Thursday with Aric Almirola winning the second. Logano will start third and Almirola will start fourth. Logano won the Daytona 500 in 2015.

the athleteMotorsports journalists Jeff Glock and Jordan Bianchi answered questions and made predictions for this weekend’s Daytona 500 after observing qualifying during the week. For more on the season, check out their predictions for 2023, which included Player of the Year, a 16-Driver playoff field and more.

Let’s start with the basics. Which teams do you expect to improve the most this season? What difference would you fall back on?

glock: Richard Childress Racing won four races last year, but I can see the organization getting better now with the addition of Kyle Busch and the bringing in of Keith Rodden as Austin Dillon’s crew chief. Speaking of crew chiefs, it will be great to watch Hendrick Motorsports new hire Blake Harris get to work with Alex Bowman after Harris found success with Michael McDowell at Front Row Motorsports. My biggest question is about Stewart-Haas Racing. There are a lot of questions swirling around in the year of retirement of Kevin Harvick, new driver at Ryan Preece and doubts about the future of Aric Almirola.

Bianchi: Each of the manufacturers made changes to the nose of their cars, changes that will benefit some inside the garage more than Ford. If that proves to be the case, then Stewart‐Haas Racing is a team to watch. The team co-owned by Tony Stewart has fallen behind the other three major sporting organizations (Hendrick, Team Penske and Joe Gibbs Racing) over the past couple of years, and faster cars would certainly help SHR ​​bridge that performance gap. And as Jeff noted, Blake Harris has taken over crew chief duties for Alex Bowman’s No. 48 team and there good Harris is raising Bowman to a level that it wouldn’t be a shock to see him advance to the fourth championship.

Do you expect the Cup Series contenders to be the same as last year?

glock: For the most part, yes. It’ll be the familiar group (Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, etc.) with the chance that someone like Tyler Reddick will make a deep playoff run, too. It seems likely that Christopher Bell will continue to take it a step further and Martin Truex Jr. will be rejuvenated. Ryan Blaney also won’t go for a second straight season without winning points. Other must-sees include William Byron, Bush, and Harvick (in his final season).

Bianchi: Even with all the parity within NASCAR last year, the reality is that the great teams still won the majority of races. That will be the case again in 2023, perhaps even more so considering that Blaney (Penske) and Truex (JGR) both surprisingly went winless last year and are unlikely to do so again this year.

For this weekend’s race, no driver has odds below the +1200 probability, with 11 odds at +2000 or lower. Is this typical uncertainty or are there more unknowns this year?

glock: Choosing a Daytona winner isn’t entirely accidental, but it’s close. There’s maybe 30 drivers who can get it done on Sunday. This makes it very difficult to put your money on the actual winner. Even if you think someone has the fastest car or is most adept on a highway, it doesn’t make sense if they get into a major accident (which drivers often see as innocent bystanders). Your best bet is to look for head-to-head matches or see if you can find some value in a driver who finishes in the top five (like Justin Haley at +550 or Corey LaJoie at +1100).

Bianchi: Focusing on one driver as the unanimous favorite is almost impossible given the many factors involved and the number of drivers who could realistically win. The best strategy is to distribute your bets to drivers with longer odds, and hopefully you will be able to collect your bets. Names to consider: Erik Jones +1100, AJ Allmendinger +3300, Justin Haley +4000, Todd Gilliland +6600, and Corey LaJoie +8000. Among this group, LaJoie brings particularly good value considering he’s so good at breakneck speeds, often putting himself out front at the end of races – including in Thursday’s Duel Qualifier where he finished fifth.

Last year Austin Cindric won the Daytona 500 as a rookie. Are any of this year’s rookies viable contenders?

glock: Noah Gragson could field it and jump into the top 10, but it’s hard to see him actually win it (although he did get 190 of the 200 laps completed last year before getting into a major crash). He has a better chance of a good result than Ty Gibbs, who makes his 500 debut and drives for a manufacturer (Toyota) with the fewest cars – and therefore the fewest others eager to work with him.

Bianchi: While Gibbs is driving a larger team, JGR, Gragson’s rebuilding Legacy Motor Club isn’t ruling out Gragson entirely. He’s been a supercross road racer in the Xfinity Series, including wins at both Daytona and Talladega.

What surprised you the most about the qualifying races on Wednesday and Thursday?

glock: There weren’t many surprises, but Todd Gilliland was certainly impressive in a duel. Gilliland, in his second season, was told he would not be able to drive a full schedule in his No. 38 car for Front Row Motorsports. But a Daytona 500 win—and subsequent playoff berth—would change the course of his season and his career. At +6600, it could be worth considering as a long pick.

Bianchi: The Fords had a lot of speed, which while unsurprising, only reinforced the belief that Logano, Blaney, Keselowski, Harvick, and Cendrick must all be factors on Sunday. The Toyotas of Denny Hamlin and Bubba Wallace also looked strong, not another surprise but something of note for the weekend.

Who would you choose to win the race?

glock: This is a boring answer, but I go with my favorite – Ryan Blaney (+1200). Blaney is great at breakneck speeds and will likely be in contention for much of the day whether he wins or not. It’s likely he’ll lead a good chunk of the laps at some point and put himself in victory position, just as he was last year until teammate Cendric crammed him into the wall coming to the finish line.

Bianchi: Wallace has developed into one of the teams best in the superspeedway, scoring a win at Talladega in 2021 and two second-place finishes in the Daytona 500 — including last year when he finished second to Cendric by 0.036 seconds. Despite this track record, Wallace has slightly higher odds than you’d expect (+1800) because he’s behind two drivers who have never won at Daytona (Kyle Larson, +1400, and Russ Chastain, +1600).

Odds of the Daytona 500

(Photo by Alex Bowman: Chris Graythen/Getty Images)