Game flow!
Teams would love to be great from the first quarter through the fourth quarter every single night, but that’s not realistic for all 30 teams. We have some teams who consistently start slow and then turn it on. We have teams that begin with a fury and then fade away, hoping to hang on desperately to the victory. Some teams are bad in the first and fourth quarters, but great in the middle. And vice-versa. Some teams come out of halftime with their hair on fire and some just come out of halftime and snuff out their flame.
A little over two months ago, we tracked this quarter by quarter with net ratings and rankings. We even threw in some clutch situation stuff to see if that lines up with the fourth quarter performances in general. As we finish this All-Star break and get ready for the final stretch of the season, it’s time to check back in on the quarter flow of each game for every team. Not to mention, we’re ranking teams 1-30 flawlessly and without complaint for the 19th straight week.
Reminder: The Power Rankings don’t just rank the 30 teams. We divide these teams into tiers, which any of the teams can move in and out of. We have the tiers in the Power Rankings broken into six categories:
- Victor Wembanyama Watch — They’re rebuilding and nothing matters more than development and lottery ping pong balls.
- Turning toward the tank — Life is finding a way to correct what’s been confusing.
- Looking to make the Play-In — They’ve been rebuilding/retooling and think they can crack the top 10 in their respective conference.
- Play-In Tournament teams Or Better — They should be in the mix unless something disastrous happens.
- On the brink of contention — A piece away from us believing they can win the title.
- Contenders — They are contending for the championship, barring a massive injury.
As always, I am sure we will all agree on the placement of all 30 teams, especially your favorite team.
Here’s how the Power Rankings work:
- It’s up to my discretion how the rankings shake out. For some teams, they’ll be hit in the short term. Others will be given the benefit for the long term. Yes, it is entirely subjective.
- If I have a team ahead of another team, there’s no reason to ask why they’re ranked above the team you like. The answer is pretty simple: I think that team is set up better for success.
- Yes, I watch the games. And yes, I watch your favorite team.
- This is supposed to be fun, so let’s have fun with it.
With all that said, let’s dive into Week 19 of the The Athletic’s NBA Power Rankings. Stats and records are through Sunday’s action.
Tier 1: The Contenders
1. Milwaukee Bucks (previously first) | 41-17 | +3.1 net rating
Weekly slate: Win over Celtics, Win at Bulls
1st Q: +7.5 net rating (previous: +12.8) | Ranked 4th (previous: 3rd)
2nd Q: -2.1 net rating (previous: -0.4) | Ranked 21st (previous: 15th)
3rd Q: +5.8 net rating (previous: +9.1) | Ranked 4th (previous: 3rd)
4th Q: +0.9 net rating (previous: -4.1) | Ranked 14th (previous: 25th)
Clutch: +2.0 net rating (previous: -13.7) | Ranked 11th (previous: 25th) | 28 games (22-6) (Previous: 12 games, 8-4)
Takeaway: Hopefully, this Giannis Antetokounmpo wrist injury doesn’t derail anything because the Bucks are on fire right now. Their 12 straight wins are tied for sixth in franchise history. Their modern day record is 18 straight in 2019, and their franchise record is 20 straight in 1971. This team dips quite a bit in the second quarter, which might just be a depth issue. Their fourth quarters aren’t very spectacular, but that’s mostly garbage time a lot of nights. The most impressive thing is their clutch performance. They don’t overwhelm you, but they do beat you. They’ve gone 14-2 in clutch games since we last checked in.
2. Denver Nuggets (previously third) | 41-18 | +4.5 net rating
Weekly slate: Win at Heat, Win over Mavs
1st Q: +13.1 net rating (previous: +15.2) | Ranked 1st (previous: 2nd)
2nd Q: +2.2 net rating (previous: -6.4) | Ranked 11th (previous: 26th)
3rd Q: +3.9 net rating (previous: -4.2) | Ranked 6th (previous: 21st)
4th Q: -2.3 net rating (previous: +0.1) | Ranked 24th (previous: 14th)
Clutch: +19.5 net rating (previous: +20.6) | Ranked 1st (previous: 5th) | 26 games (17-9) (Previous: 12 games, 8-4)
Takeaway: The Nuggets dominate you at the beginning of games, and then you’re just desperately playing catch-up the rest of the night. Or maybe you’ve packed it in and just waiting to make it more respectable when we get to garbage time in the fourth. Nikola Jokić is working on his third MVP, and the job he does closing down games in clutch situations just adds to the argument. Denver is the best team in the clutch, and it’s honestly surprising they’ve lost nine of those 26 games. Denver is running away with the No. 1 seed in the West.
3. Boston Celtics (previously second) | 42-17 | +6.2 net rating
Weekly slate: Loss at Bucks, Win over Pistons
1st Q: +11.4 net rating (previous: +18.6) | Ranked 2nd (previous: 1st)
2nd Q: +4.9 net rating (previous: +5.9) | Ranked 8th (previous: 7th)
3rd Q: +5.4 net rating (previous: +8.1) | Ranked 5th (previous: 4th)
4th Q: +4.2 net rating (previous: +1.7) | Ranked 6th (previous: 12th)
Clutch: +13.7 net rating (previous: +8.0) | Ranked 3rd (previous: 12th) | 26 games (18-8) (Previous: 11 games, 8-3)
Takeaway: Maybe the Celtics should be the top team in the Power Rankings, but considering the injuries, it felt fine to knock them all the way down to third. It’s crazy how this team just doesn’t have a bad quarter throughout the game. Almost the best first quarter team, a top-eight second quarter team, top-five in the third, and then they don’t even let you win garbage time against them. If you are fortunate enough to get to a clutch situation, they’re running that too. Feels like Jayson Tatum gets pushed out of these MVP conversations too easily right now, when he could be leading it.
4. Philadelphia 76ers (previously seventh) | 38-19 | +4.0 net rating
Weekly slate: Win over Rockets, Win over Cavs
1st Q: +8.4 net rating (previous: +5.1) | Ranked 3rd (previous: 11th)
2nd Q: +2.0 net rating (previous: -3.7) | Ranked 12th (previous: 21st)
3rd Q: +0.8 net rating (previous: +1.0) | Ranked 13th — tied (previous: 14th)
4th Q: +4.3 net rating (previous: +8.0) | Ranked 5th (previous: 4th)
Clutch: +9.6 net rating (previous: +4.5) | Ranked 7th (previous: 14th) | 30 games (19-11) (Previous: 14 games, 7-7)
Takeaway: When we checked in on this a little over two months ago, the Sixers were still battling injuries to James Harden and Tyrese Maxey. They weren’t even close to whole. Now? The Sixers have kicked things into high gear and they are kicking teams’ butts to start out games. They maintain in the middle quarters and then they put it away in the fourth. They’ve gone 12-4 in their last 16 clutch games since we last checked in. And they’ve won 26 of their last 33 games. They have become an absolute force.
5. Phoenix Suns (previously fourth) | 32-28 | +1.5 net rating
Weekly slate: Win over Kings, Loss to Clippers
1st Q: +0.1 net rating (previous: +3.7) | Ranked 17th (previous: 13th)
2nd Q: +6.1 net rating (previous: +3.6) | Ranked 4th (previous: 9th)
3rd Q: +0.8 net rating (previous: +11.1) | Ranked 13th — tied (previous: 2nd)
4th Q: -1.0 net rating (previous: +1.9) | Ranked 18th (previous: 11th)
Clutch: -4.2 net rating (previous: +4.7) | Ranked 20th (previous: 13th) | 25 games (11-14) (Previous: 11 games, 4-7)
Takeaway: All of these numbers are skewed from the time Devin Booker missed, but the Suns are finally back to their winning ways. The segments of the season for them are pretty stark in contrast. They started out 16-7, then had a 5-17 stretch, and now have won 11 of their last 15 games. The biggest concern though, overall, might be their clutch play. It will likely correct itself and regress to the mean with everybody back healthy. And when Kevin Durant gets onto the court, it makes them impossible to guard in the clutch. But this team struggled before Booker went down. Chris Paul was a shell of himself to start the season. He’s been better lately, but this is not the clutch juggernaut we saw a year ago.
And yes, the Suns are this high still because I’m banking on KD playing for them. I get why some might take a “wait and see” approach to it, but I feel like it’s a sturdy limb to be on.
Tier 2: Brink of Contention
6. Memphis Grizzlies (previously sixth) | 35-22 | +4.0 net rating
Weekly slate: Win over Jazz
1st Q: +6.5 net rating (previous: +10.4) | Ranked 5th (previous: 5th)
2nd Q: +6.2 net rating (previous: +1.0) | Ranked 3rd (previous: 13th)
3rd Q: +7.8 net rating (previous: +5.9) | Ranked 2nd (previous: 6th)
4th Q: -5.2 net rating (previous: -6.9) | Ranked 27th (previous: 29th)
Clutch: -8.5 net rating (previous: +3.2) | Ranked 25th (previous: 15th) | 24 games (13-11) (Previous: 12 games, 8-4)
Takeaway: This Grizzlies squad doesn’t get into a lot of tight games because they’re so dominant in the first three quarters. I’m not even worried about them being so bad in the fourth because that’s often them just getting handled in garbage time. This Grizzlies team is a machine for most of the game and it’s why they’re tied for the fourth most double-digit wins on the season. However, their clutch performance still worries me, even with the winning record. It’s a very middle of the road offense in the clutch and their defense doesn’t stay together. They have to clean up their half court offense when things grind down in the postseason.
7. LA Clippers (previously ninth) | 33-28 | +0.3 net rating
Weekly slate: Win over Warriors, Win at Suns
1st Q: +0.4 net rating (previous: +4.8) | Ranked 16th (previous: 12th)
2nd Q: -10.0 net rating (previous: -14.6) | Ranked 29th (previous: 30th)
3rd Q: +7.2 net rating (previous: +3.2) | Ranked 3rd (previous: 11th)
4th Q: +2.9 net rating (previous: +1.5) | Ranked 10th (previous: 13th)
Clutch: +8.8 net rating (previous: +9.2) | Ranked 8th — tied (previous: 10th) | 31 games (18-13) (Previous: 16 games, 10-6)
Takeaway: The Clippers battle back so much in the second half, and it’s a good thing that great stuff is happening after Ty Lue and the team makes adjustments at halftime. They come out swinging in the third quarter, and they’ve improved in the fourth quarter, as well. Their clutch numbers are good, but their end-of-game offense leaves a lot to be desired. Luckily, they have a lockdown defense at the end of games. But how do they avoid getting obliterated in the second quarter. It was a problem two months ago. It’s a problem now. They just let go of any focus leading into the half, and they could solve so many issues if they just kept it together.
8. Cleveland Cavaliers (previously fifth) | 38-23 | +5.8 net rating
Weekly slate: Win over Spurs, Loss at Sixers
1st Q: +4.5 net rating (previous: +3.2) | Ranked 10th — tied (previous: 14th)
2nd Q: +6.8 net rating (previous: +9.7) | Ranked 2nd (previous: 3rd)
3rd Q: +0.2 net rating (previous: +1.1) | Ranked 16th (previous: 13th)
4th Q: +9.2 net rating (previous: +6.0) | Ranked 1st (previous: 6th)
Clutch: +1.0 net rating (previous: -7.7) | Ranked 14th (previous: 19th) | 33 games (17-16) (Previous: 16 games, 9-7)
Takeaway: Did you think you were going to make a late push against the Cavs when they had you down bad in the first half? You may play them even out of halftime, but they step on necks in the fourth quarter to put it out of reach. The Cavs have the most double-digit wins in basketball with 26 of their 38 wins coming by 10 points or more. They really just put so many teams away. It’s a good thing too because while their clutch performance has been solid, they should be better than a coin flip in those moments. Donovan Mitchell has been okay, but the offense is so stagnant and there isn’t a lot of ball movement.
Tier 3: Play-In Tournament Teams Or Better
9. Sacramento Kings (previously eighth) | 32-25 | +2.1 net rating
Weekly slate: Loss at Suns
1st Q: -1.9 net rating (previous: -2.6) | Ranked 19th (previous: 18th tied)
2nd Q: +0.5 net rating (previous: +7.3) | Ranked 15th (previous: 5th)
3rd Q: +3.0 net rating (previous: +4.0) | Ranked 10th (previous: 9th)
4th Q: +6.4 net rating (previous: +2.8) | Ranked 2nd (previous: 9th)
Clutch: +12.9 net rating (previous: +22.8) | Ranked 4th (previous: 4th) | 31 games (18-13) (Previous: 15 games, 9-6)
Takeaway: The Kings are gettable in the first half, and then they come out of halftime with adjustments and just smoke the opposing team. They’re arguably the best fourth quarter team in basketball, which is not something we’ve associated with them in a very long time. It’s actually surprising that their clutch record is as poor as it is, even though it’s good, because it feels like they win every close game. All-Star De’Aaron Fox has been either the best fourth quarter player in basketball this season, or he’s the second behind Jokić. Kings will have a battle with the Clippers and Suns the rest of the season, but they can very much still own the 3-seed.
10. New York Knicks (previously 12th) | 33-27 | +2.0 net rating
Weekly slate: Win over Nets, Win at Hawks
1st Q: +5.6 net rating (previous: +9.5) | Ranked 7th (previous: 6th)
2nd Q: +5.0 net rating (previous: +1.7) | Ranked 7th (previous: 12th)
3rd Q: -0.6 net rating (previous: -5.6) | Ranked 18th (previous: 23rd)
4th Q: -1.5 net rating (previous: -3.0) | Ranked 20th (previous: 21st)
Clutch: -6.0 net rating (previous: +1.9) | Ranked 22nd (previous: 16th) | 32 games (17-15) (Previous: 11 games, 5-6)
Takeaway: The Knicks have been excellent in the first half of games, and we’re seeing similar problems as last season in the second half of games. Thankfully, it’s not as severe in the third quarter, when they came out like a G League squad following halftime last season. It’s still not good, and they’re down in the second half of most games, but they’re still doing a pretty good job of hanging onto close wins. They need way more Jalen Brunson and way less Julius Randle at the end of games. Brunson is making half his shots, and Randle is shooting under 30 percent. This Knicks team is legitimately good.
11. Miami Heat (previously 10th) | 32-27 | -0.1 net rating
Weekly slate: Loss to Nuggets, Loss at Nets
1st Q: -2.5 net rating (previous: -1.1) | Ranked 22nd (previous: 16th)
2nd Q: +5.4 net rating (previous: +0.6) | Ranked 6th (previous: 14th)
3rd Q: -6.7 net rating (previous: -5.9) | Ranked 28th (previous: 25th)
4th Q: +2.7 net rating (previous: -2.8) | Ranked 11th (previous: 20th)
Clutch: +10.9 net rating (previous: +9.0) | Ranked 6th (previous: 11th) | 41 games (23-18) (Previous: 18 games, 9-9)
Takeaway: The way Heat games go is utterly insane. I don’t know how you handle the stress and ulcers if you’re a Heat fan because every damn game comes down to the final minutes. They try to grind everybody down, win with defense, and get to the free throw line for their offensive output when we get to the final moments of a clutch situation-triggering game. They’re playing way too many clutch games. In 2018-19 (a full 82-game season), the most clutch games we saw from a team was Sacramento with 49 clutch games. Last season (the next 82-game season), the Lakers led the way with 47 clutch games. The Heat have already played 41 of them! They’re on pace for like 57 clutch games. Blow somebody out already!
12. New Orleans Pelicans (previously 13th) | 30-29 | +1.4 net rating
Weekly slate: Win at Thunder, Loss at Lakers
1st Q: +2.7 net rating (previous: +7.0) | Ranked 13th (previous: 8th)
2nd Q: +3.7 net rating (previous: +3.2) | Ranked 10th (previous: 10th)
3rd Q: -2.3 net rating (previous: +5.1) | Ranked 21st (previous: 7th)
4th Q: +1.8 net rating (previous: +13.3) | Ranked 13th (previous: 1st)
Clutch: +11.8 net rating (previous: +24.0) | Ranked 5th (previous: 3rd) | 27 games (13-14) (Previous: 11 games, 8-3)
Takeaway: The Pelicans are a great example of needing a check-and-balance for net rating. Net rating is typically an indicator of future success. If you see a team with a mediocre record and a good net rating, they’re usually going to end up start winning games. Not always, but often enough. They have one of the best marks in clutch net rating on the season and yet, they’re under .500 in these situations. As you can see, their rating has been cut in half since two months ago, and their record in this time is 5-11 in this time. A lot of that can probably be attributed to missing Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson for big chunks. We know this team is a problem when they’re healthy. We just hope to see them healthy again soon.
13. Dallas Mavericks (previously 11th) | 31-29 | +0.3 net rating
Weekly slate: Loss to Wolves, Loss at Nuggets
1st Q: +4.6 net rating (previous: +7.1) | Ranked 9th (previous: 7th)
2nd Q: -4.6 net rating (previous: +2.5) | Ranked 24th (previous: 11th)
3rd Q: +3.6 net rating (previous: -0.2) | Ranked 7th — tied (previous: 16th)
4th Q: -1.9 net rating (previous: -2.2) | Ranked 22nd (previous: 18th)
Clutch: +1.9 net rating (previous: -11.8) | Ranked 12th (previous: 22nd tied) | 37 games (21-16) (Previous: 18 games, 9-9)
Takeaway: It’ll be interesting to see how the Mavericks perform at the end of games with Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic both on the court together. They’ve been pretty miserable in second quarters and fourth quarters this season. Their end of game offense is way too poor considering the singular weapon they’ve had on the floor. Now add Irving, who was a clutch killer in Brooklyn. The Mavs could go on a big run here and be even more successful at the end of games. They’ve relied on their defense to show up, and it did. Things have completely flipped now and it will hopefully have even bigger long-term results for them.
14. Golden State Warriors (previously 15th) | 29-29 | +0.1 net rating
Weekly slate: Win over Wizards, Loss at Clippers
1st Q: +3.3 net rating (previous: +6.0) | Ranked 12th (previous: 10th)
2nd Q: +1.8 net rating (previous: -2.4) | Ranked 13th (previous: 18th tied)
3rd Q: -1.4 net rating (previous: +3.6) | Ranked 20th (previous: 10th)
4th Q: -2.8 net rating (previous: -1.4) | Ranked 25th (previous: 16th)
Clutch: -7.3 net rating (previous: -11.8) | Ranked 24th (previous: 22nd tied) | 30 games (14-16) (Previous: 14 games, 5-9)
Takeaway: Obviously, Steph Curry has missed a bunch of time and it’s going to affect how they perform at the end of close games. But the Warriors have been awful in clutch moments, for the most part. Even when he’s healthy. He hasn’t shot that well, and the Warriors have the third worst offensive rating and the third worst turnover rate in the clutch. Everything else is whatever for them. They’re good enough to start games. Their second half hasn’t been very good. But in the clutch, they show no championship resolve or understanding of what it takes to win.
15. Minnesota Timberwolves (previously 14th) | 31-30 | +0.2 net rating
Weekly slate: Win at Mavs, Loss to Wizards
1st Q: +4.5 net rating (previous: +6.7) | Ranked 10th — tied (previous: 9th)
2nd Q: +1.6 net rating (previous: -5.4) | Ranked 14th (previous: 24th)
3rd Q: -4.6 net rating (previous: -7.3) | Ranked 24th (previous: 27th)
4th Q: -0.2 net rating (previous: +6.5) | Ranked 15th (previous: 5th)
Clutch: -4.7 net rating (previous: +11.7) | Ranked 21st (previous: 8th) | 32 games (19-13) (Previous: 11 games, 8-3)
Takeaway: The Wolves are hard to judge, just because Karl-Anthony Towns hasn’t played since late November. They also just switched out point guards from D’Angelo Russell to Mike Conley at the trade deadline. We saw a horrible collapse from them this week, and they can fall in love with the jump shot too much. The Wolves still have a good clutch record despite the negative net rating, kind of the flip side of what we talked about with New Orleans. The Wolves have to get better after halftime. They just don’t come out with the same focus, and it’s putting them in tough situations. Maybe they just want to test what Anthony Edwards can do?
Tier 4: Looking to make the Play-In
16. Brooklyn Nets (previously 18th) | 34-24 | +2.0 net rating
Weekly slate: Loss at Knicks, Win over Heat
1st Q: +4.9 net rating (previous: +10.8) | Ranked 8th (previous: 4th)
2nd Q: -0.6 net rating (previous: -2.8) | Ranked 19th (previous: 20th)
3rd Q: +0.6 net rating (previous: -1.7) | Ranked 15th (previous: 19th tied)
4th Q: +3.6 net rating (previous: -0.8) | Ranked 7th — tied (previous: 15th)
Clutch: +13.9 net rating (previous: +39.9) | Ranked 2nd (previous: 1st) | 30 games (20-10) (Previous: 13 games, 10-3)
Takeaway: None of this really matters because we have to throw everything out the window with them. It looked really good for the Nets prior to Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant deciding they wanted to go. They were dominating in the clutch most games. They were great to start and to finish. And now they’ve got more of a 2013 Denver Nuggets vibe trying to win with nothing but role players. Everything with the finish of the season will be based on how Ben Simmons looks. We know Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson can play. We know the Nets already had promising role players. What can they unlock with Simmons? Or re-unlock? He used to be pretty good and exciting.
17. Oklahoma City Thunder (previously 16th) | 28-29 | +1.5 net rating
Weekly slate: Loss to Pelicans, Win over Rockets
1st Q: -2.4 net rating (previous: -9.5) | Ranked 21st (previous: 25th)
2nd Q: -1.7 net rating (previous: -7.2) | Ranked 20th (previous: 28th)
3rd Q: +10.9 net rating (previous: +12.5) | Ranked 1st (previous: 1st)
4th Q: -0.6 net rating (previous: -3.4) | Ranked 16th (previous: 24th)
Clutch: -4.0 net rating (previous: -0.7) | Ranked 19th (previous: 17th tied) | 33 games (13-20) (Previous: 16 games, 7-9)
Takeaway: When I look at this stuff, I’m either looking for consistency across the board, or a massive swing that raises an eyebrow. The Thunder fall into the category of the latter with how they perform in the third quarter. They battle in the first half, and then Mark Daigneault makes adjustments with his players and staff at halftime. They come out and dominate third quarters. They’re the best third quarter team in basketball, and it’s not particularly close. It’s surprising they’ve struggled as much as they have in clutch situations because I’d bet on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in those situations, but the Thunder are a really well-coached squad.
18. Toronto Raptors (previously 22nd) | 28-31 | +0.8 net rating
Weekly slate: Win over Magic
1st Q: +1.7 net rating (previous: -8.6) | Ranked 15th (previous: 24th)
2nd Q: +0.3 net rating (previous: +8.0) | Ranked 16th (previous: 4th)
3rd Q: -0.7 net rating (previous: -0.4) | Ranked 19th (previous: 17th)
4th Q: +2.2 net rating (previous: +5.0) | Ranked 12th (previous: 7th tied)
Clutch: +8.8 net rating (previous: +26.0) | Ranked 8th — tied (previous: 2nd) | 34 games (15-19) (Previous: 14 games, 7-7)
Takeaway: This is another team that I just don’t understand how the Raptors are as unsuccessful as they are. Nick Nurse’s offense leaves a ton to be desired. It’s the opposite of how I view his defensive schemes. They can’t close games, despite their net rating looking like one of the best. It’s also gone down considerably over the last two months. Hopefully, the interior presence of the Jakob Poeltl acquisition pays dividends. The Raptors are playing better recently. They won five of six going into the break. But they need to have bigger starts or bigger finishes to games.
19. Washington Wizards (previously 23rd) | 28-30 | +0.3 net rating
Weekly slate: Loss at Warriors, Win at Blazers, Win at Wolves
1st Q: +2.6 net rating (previous: -2.6) | Ranked 14th (previous: 18th tied)
2nd Q: -4.2 net rating (previous: -8.3) | Ranked 22nd — tied (previous: 29th)
3rd Q: -0.4 net rating (previous: -5.1) | Ranked 17th (previous: 22nd)
4th Q: +3.6 net rating (previous: +9.0) | Ranked 7th — tied (previous: 3rd)
Clutch: +0.1 net rating (previous: -13.4) | Ranked 15th (previous: 24th) | 31 games (13-18) (Previous: 17 games, 6-11)
Takeaway: I had a whole plan to break down their quarter-by-quarter performance, and then I was talking with Mo Dakhil about a Wizards lineup I can get behind. I guess the lineup of Monte Morris, Bradley Beal, Kyle Kuzma, Kristaps Porzingis, and Daniel Gafford had to be +9.0 per 100 possessions. Turns out it’s even better. That lineup is +23.0 points per 100 possessions! The problem? They’ve only played 75 total minutes this season. How is that possible? I know stumbled into the Gafford-Porzingis pairing, and they’ve had some injuries, but this is a lineup that can’t be stopped in a small sample size. Free this lineup!
20. Portland Trail Blazers (previously 19th) | 28-30 | -0.3 net rating
Weekly slate: Win over Lakers, Loss to Wizards
1st Q: -6.1 net rating (previous: -1.2) | Ranked 25th (previous: 17th)
2nd Q: +5.6 net rating (previous: -2.4) | Ranked 5th (previous: 18th tied)
3rd Q: +1.3 net rating (previous: +2.3) | Ranked 11th (previous: 12th)
4th Q: -2.2 net rating (previous: -1.6) | Ranked 23rd (previous: 17th)
Clutch: -1.6 net rating (previous: +12.4) | Ranked 16th (previous: 6th) | 30 games (13-17) (Previous: 15 games, 9-6)
Takeaway: Does it feel like the Blazers should have a worse offensive rating in the clutch than the Miami Heat? It doesn’t, right? Well, they do. The Blazers aren’t terrible at clutch offense. They’re 12th so far, but for a team with Damian Lillard, they should be much better and not under .500 in crunch time. Portland starts out games so poorly, and that has to stop. They’re talented, and better than their record. Or at least, they should be. They need to come out and make statements to begin games more than they do. Their Play-In Tournament existence depends on it.
21. Atlanta Hawks (previously 17th) | 29-30 | -0.5 net rating
Weekly slate: Loss at Hornets, Loss to Knicks
1st Q: -2.2 net rating (previous: -3.1) | Ranked 20th (previous: 21st)
2nd Q: +0.2 net rating (previous: +4.4) | Ranked 17th (previous: 8th)
3rd Q: +3.5 net rating (previous: +0.5) | Ranked 9th (previous: 15th)
4th Q: -3.8 net rating (previous: -6.8) | Ranked 26th (previous: 27th tied)
Clutch: -12.7 net rating (previous: -10.8) | Ranked 26th (previous: 21st) | 29 games (14-15) (Previous: 12 games, 6-6)
Takeaway: I hope Hawks fans don’t take this personally, but I am really sick of this team. They should be so much better than they are. I keep holding out hope for a turnaround in the season. They keep sputtering in their attempts. They’re not even fun anymore. I don’t know what’s going on with Trae Young, who still has cool stats but also doesn’t seem to have the same impact he used to. They’re bad without him, but they’re not terribly good with him. I guess that’s impact? They start and finish games poorly. They’re on the wrong side of coin flips when it comes to clutch situations. I just wish they played to their capabilities a lot more because there is so much talent there.
22. Los Angeles Lakers (previously 21st) | 27-32 | -0.9 net rating
Weekly slate: Loss at Blazers, Win over Pelicans
1st Q: -5.6 net rating (previous: -7.0) | Ranked 24th (previous: 23rd)
2nd Q: +4.8 net rating (previous: +17.1) | Ranked 9th (previous: 1st)
3rd Q: -6.3 net rating (previous: -10.3) | Ranked 27th (previous: 29th)
4th Q: +4.9 net rating (previous: -3.1) | Ranked 4th (previous: 22nd)
Clutch: -3.4 net rating (previous: -26.2) | Ranked 18th (previous: 27th) | 31 games (15-16) (Previous: 11 games, 4-7)
Takeaway: As you would expect, the Lakers are a roller coaster throughout these games. It’s been a roller coaster of a season for them in general. Bringing D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, and Jarred Vanderbilt into the mix should help things considerably, but we don’t know if it’s enough to make up for the season they’ve had so far. They go down in the first quarter and battle back before halftime. They get in a hole in the third quarter and make a run in the fourth. They’re a coin flip most of the time in the clutch, but we’ve seen huge improvements since two months ago. And as much as I think Russell Westbrook was unfairly scapegoated for problems much larger than him, this team will benefit from not having him at the end of close games.
23. Orlando Magic (previously 20th) | 24-35 | -2.6 net rating
Weekly slate: Win at Bulls, Loss at Raptors
1st Q: -3.5 net rating (previous: -4.4) | Ranked 23rd (previous: 22nd)
2nd Q: -4.2 net rating (previous: -7.1) | Ranked 22nd — tied (previous: 27th)
3rd Q: -5.3 net rating (previous: -14.0) | Ranked 25th (previous: 30th)
4th Q: +3.0 net rating (previous: +5.0) | Ranked 9th (previous: 7th tied)
Clutch: -19.2 net rating (previous: -28.2) | Ranked 29th (previous: 28th) | 31 games (12-19) (Previous: 17 games, 5-12)
Takeaway: I love this Magic team and what they’ve done since their 5-20 start. I keep trying to remind everybody that this has been a winning team since their bad start, and they could make the Play-In Tournament with a little fortune going their way. Maybe a little bit like what we saw from New Orleans last season. But my goodness, they don’t make it easy on themselves. All of the quarters have gotten better since two months ago, but the Magic still need to fight back in games way too often. And they just can’t win games in the clutch. They’re really bad in the clutch. That’s just the life of a growing, competitive, young squad, I guess.
Tier 5: Turning toward the tank?
24. Utah Jazz (previously 25th) | 29-31 | +0.6 net rating
Weekly slate: Win at Pacers, Loss at Grizzlies
1st Q: 0.0 net rating (previous: +1.4) | Ranked 18th (previous: 15th)
2nd Q: -0.5 net rating (previous: +6.1) | Ranked 18th (previous: 6th)
3rd Q: +3.6 net rating (previous: +4.8) | Ranked 7th — tied (previous: 6th)
4th Q: -1.6 net rating (previous: -6.8) | Ranked 21st (previous: 27th tied)
Clutch: +5.9 net rating (previous: -0.7) | Ranked 10th (previous: 17th tied) | 41 games (18-23) (Previous: 19 games, 9-10)
Takeaway: The Jazz are another example, like the Pelicans, of net rating not always leading us to the conclusions we’d assume from looking at it on its own. The Jazz in the clutch have been mind-bottling. Their net rating is good and getting better since the last time we checked in. Their record is five games under .500 and getting worse in the clutch. It’s going to change too, since they traded away Mike Conley, Malik Beasley, and Jarred Vanderbilt. They just can’t catch a break in those games. The basketball gods are trying to get them to tank.
25. Indiana Pacers (previously 26th) | 26-34 | -2.8 net rating
Weekly slate: Loss to Jazz, Win over Bulls
1st Q: -17.0 net rating (previous: -20.6) | Ranked 30th (previous: 30th)
2nd Q: +6.9 net rating (previous: +9.8) | Ranked 1st (previous: 2nd)
3rd Q: -5.7 net rating (previous: -1.1) | Ranked 26th (previous: 15th)
4th Q: +5.4 net rating (previous: +9.6) | Ranked 3rd (previous: 2nd)
Clutch: +1.5 net rating (previous: +11.8) | Ranked 13th (previous: 7th) | 37 games (19-18) (Previous: 14 games, 8-6)
Takeaway: The first quarter has been disgusting for the Indiana Pacers all season long, and they haven’t improved it much over the last two months. From there, you’re just asking a team to battle back far too often. They turn it around as the best second quarter team in basketball, and their fourth quarters are excellent. They also do a really good job battling and winning in the clutch. But so much of this team is just trying to climb out of a hole they dug early in the game. They’re actually 17-13 in clutch situation-triggered games when Tyrese Haliburton plays, so he’s clearly a building block who helps them close things out. Pacers are on a rough slide, though, losing 16 of their last 19 games.
26. Chicago Bulls (previously 24th) | 26-33 | -0.3 net rating
Weekly slate: Loss to Magic, Loss at Pacers, Loss to Bucks
1st Q: +6.4 net rating (previous: -2.6) | Ranked 6th (previous: 18th tied)
2nd Q: -6.8 net rating (previous: -6.2) | Ranked 27th (previous: 25th)
3rd Q: +1.1 net rating (previous: +6.9) | Ranked 12th (previous: 5th)
4th Q: -0.8 net rating (previous: +2.5) | Ranked 17th (previous: 10th)
Clutch: -2.9 net rating (previous: -7.8) | Ranked 17th (previous: 20th) | 30 games (10-20) (Previous: 13 games, 3-10)
Takeaway: I don’t know what to do with this Bulls squad. I want to be cognizant of them being without Lonzo Ball all season long. But no offense; he can’t be that important to their success, can he? They have other good options there, but the great defense has not been there in the backcourt outside of Alex Caruso. The Bulls generally start out great and then give it all back 12 minutes later. They don’t provide much separation — good or bad — in the second half of games. And then we get to the clutch, and they’re not terrible, but they’re not good. They also lose two-thirds of their clutch games this season. They have some serious decisions to make this summer.
Tier 6: Victor Wembanyama Watch
27. Charlotte Hornets (previously 29th) | 17-43 | -6.3 net rating
Weekly slate: Win over Hawks, Win over Spurs
1st Q: -9.5 net rating (previous: -13.9) | Ranked 26th (previous: 27th)
2nd Q: -10.4 net rating (previous: -2.2) | Ranked 30th (previous: 16th)
3rd Q: -2.9 net rating (previous: -6.1) | Ranked 22nd (previous: 26th)
4th Q: -1.2 net rating (previous: -4.7) | Ranked 19th (previous: 26th)
Clutch: -15.9 net rating (previous: -29.2) | Ranked 28th (previous: 29th) | 33 games (12-21) (Previous: 15 games, 4-11)
Takeaway: The Hornets punted on this season long ago, but it’s good to see after atrocious first halves, they come out of halftime a lot more competitive. I actually think that’s important for development of their young guys, and a sign of some solid coaching. They don’t have a ton of talent to help win and it’s usually just LaMelo Ball tasked with being awesome. When they get to clutch situations, they completely fall apart because they have the worst clutch defense in the NBA. The offense isn’t very good, but it doesn’t crater. The defense has the resistance of a saloon door in the Wild West.
28. Detroit Pistons (Previously 27th) | 15-44 | -7.3 net rating
Weekly slate: Loss at Celtics
1st Q: -12.1 net rating (previous: -12.7) | Ranked 28th (previous: 26th)
2nd Q: -4.7 net rating (previous: -5.3) | Ranked 25th (previous: 23rd)
3rd Q: -7.7 net rating (previous: -8.9) | Ranked 29th (previous: 28th)
4th Q: -5.7 net rating (previous: -2.6) | Ranked 28th (previous: 19th)
Clutch: -15.2 net rating (previous: -31.0) | Ranked 27th (previous: 30th) | 28 games (11-17) (Previous: 15 games, 5-10)
Takeaway: The Pistons have just upset me all season, and it’s not totally their fault. They had a bunch of injuries and lost Cade Cunningham early enough in the year to know there was no surge. Now, they’re playing for developing young guys and seeing if they can add Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson to their impressive young core. But the Pistons were still disappointing when Cunningham was playing, and they just get smoked at the beginning of games to make this a losing battle most nights. They rarely have a good quarter and they’re bad at the end of games. Let’s just hope they can have some closer losses to give the young guys more meaningful minutes to develop.
29. Houston Rockets (previously 28th) | 13-45 | -8.6 net rating
Weekly slate: Loss at Sixers, Loss at Thunder
1st Q: -10.7 net rating (previous: -14.6) | Ranked 27th (previous: 28th)
2nd Q: -6.0 net rating (previous: -2.3) | Ranked 26th (previous: 17th)
3rd Q: -9.9 net rating (previous: -5.8) | Ranked 30th (previous: 24th)
4th Q: -8.6 net rating (previous: -3.2) | Ranked 29th (previous: 23rd)
Clutch: -6.4 net rating (previous: +11.4) | Ranked 23rd (previous: 9th) | 30 games (10-20) (Previous: 14 games, 7-7)
Takeaway: We’ve seen coach Stephen Silas a lot grumpier lately, and I think you can point to the second half of games as the reason why. They are a lot worse coming out of halftime than they were, and we’re seeing the Rockets let go of the rope and be far less competitive in garbage time. First time we checked in, they were actually good and competitive in clutch situations. That has gone completely away. It’s safe to wonder if Silas will be replaced at some point this offseason, which is unfortunately often the case when young coaches take over teams that start rebuilding almost right away.
30. San Antonio Spurs (previously 30th) | 14-45 | -10.1 net rating
Weekly slate: Loss at Cavs, Loss at Hornets
1st Q: -12.9 net rating (previous: -17.0) | Ranked 29th (previous: 29th)
2nd Q: -7.7 net rating (previous: -4.2) | Ranked 28th (previous: 22nd)
3rd Q: -4.0 net rating (previous: -1.7) | Ranked 23rd (previous: 19th tied)
4th Q: -14.8 net rating (previous: -18.0) | Ranked 30th (previous: 30th)
Clutch: -19.4 net rating (previous: -18.1) | Ranked 30th (previous: 26th) | 21 games (6-15) (Previous: 9 games, 3-6)
Takeaway: Not much has changed for the Spurs, and if anything, they’ve sunken even more into this tanking season. They’ve set a franchise record with 14 straight losses, they moved off of Jakob Poeltl and Josh Richardson, and everything is about getting these young guys even more burn on the court. It’s so bad between the first and fourth quarters that I look at a -4.0 net rating in the third and think, “Hey, look at those halftime adjustments!” My biggest concern would be they’re not even competing in garbage time, and they should at least do that.
(Top Photo: Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
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